Keynote statement at the Kyiv Security Forum, 8 May 2025

Today is victory in Europe Day. Today we remember the unconditional surrender of Nazi Germany, 80 years ago on this very day.  

To me, this day is also about the heroism and suffering of Ukraine. Suffering, because in the twentieth century Ukraine was a battlefield and killing ground for two monstrous totalitarian tyrannies – Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia.  Eight to ten million Ukrainians died during the Second World War – a quarter of the population. Just ten years after millions starved to death.  Killed by Stalin in the man-made famine of the Holodomor.  

And victory in Europe day is about the heroism of Ukraine, because millions of Ukrainians fought against the Nazis in allied armies as soldiers, as partisans. And helped to destroy a regime responsible for terror, murder and genocide on a global scale.  

And that heroism we see still today, in the streets and battlefields of Ukraine. 

VE day is about victory. And it is about peace.  

But 80 years ago: 

Cold War followed World War.  An iron curtain fell across the continent. In the West: freedom but constant military threat. In the East: Soviet occupation and communist dictatorship; One totalitarian tyranny replaced the other. As you know I am from Lithuania. For me and for you in Ukraine, freedom came delayed, 45 years later.  You and I, we got our freedom only when Lithuania and Ukraine became independent in 1990, and 1991. I was born in 1956. I can still say I lived almost half of my life, under Russian occupation. I still remember what it was like. Oppression. And liberation. That is my personal experience.  

And I can say I don’t want that again for my children and grandchildren!  The future of my children and grandchildren, the future of Europe today depends on Ukraine. Because today, 80 years later we still hear echoes of the past.  Then as now the invader came like a bandit in the night.  Then as now, it started with bombs on Kyiv. 

Once again, an aggressor seeks to enslave Ukraine and dominate Europe. This time it’s Putin’s Russia. Russia is fighting a war of aggression against Ukraine. And in five years, Russia could have enough weapons to test NATO article 5, and attack one or more EU countries. That is the prediction by European Intelligence services. 

That is why we need to remember, that today history is made in Ukraine: the future of Ukraine, the future of Russia, the future of Europe, the future of our kids and grandkids is decided on the battlefields of Ukraine. 

History is important not only for memories. History is also important for lessons, – how not to repeat the tragic mistakes of the history. 

Today I see the danger that we could repeat some of the most tragic mistakes in European history of the 20th century. I want to speak openly about them, because this is the only way how we can avoid them: 

First mistake: lack of military support to Ukraine:   

During 3 years of the war, annually, both the EU and US gave military support of around 40 billion euros (20 billion on each side); but on each side the military support is less than 0.1% of their GDP.  

The EU is spending now in average 2%, US spends 3.4% of GDP on their own defence, NATO is going to agree on the 3.5% requirement, which is far more than we are giving to Ukraine.   

Why such a difference? Why do we think that today it is more important to take care only about our own defence capabilities, but not about sufficient capabilities for Ukraine, when Ukraine is defending us against the same enemy.  

I don’t understand this military logic; maybe we can have a more balanced approach?  

We cannot repeat the mistakes of the 1930s, when the democratic West did not invest into the need to stop Hitler at the very begging. 

Second mistake: inability to make a difference between aggressor and the victim  

Let’s remember Ronald Reagan, who said: “don’t be afraid to see what you see”!  

We need not to be afraid to see that Russia is an aggressor and Ukraine is a victim.  And to answer the question – with whom do we stand?  

For me, for us, the answer is clear. But it looks that for some others it still takes time to understand. 

Third mistake: the promise to have good relations with aggressor Putin.  

A big mistake is to declare a strategic interest to reestablish good relations with aggressor Putin after peace will be established.  

NATO considers Russia the biggest threat to European security and NATO plans to radically ramp-up preparedness to defend and to deter Russian aggression. It is impossible to plan to be friendly with the biggest threat and to demand bigger defence spending in order to deter the biggest threat.  

 Implementation of the promises of friendship with aggressor Putin will embolden Putin to continue his internal and external aggressive policies, will bring confusion to the whole Western world of democracies; and again will encourage aggressiveness by other authoritarian regimes. 

Fourth mistake: recognition of occupation of Crimea:    

History teaches clear lessons about leadership. In the critical moments leaders can play the role of Chamberlain, or the role of Churchill, Roosevelt or Reagan.  Chamberlain expected that he could agree with Hitler in Munich (1938) on peace and friendship, and demanded that Czechoslovakia would give part of its territory (Sudetenland) to Hitler. That was the beginning of the road to the Second World War.  Churchill, Roosevelt and Reagan were fighting for freedom and against “evil empires”. And they succeeded.  

To demand that Ukraine gives part of its territory to aggressor Putin is a simple and tragic repetition of the historic mistake of Chamberlain. 

Fifth mistake: support to the formula “No-NATO” for Ukraine:   

Russia demands ‘no-NATO’ for Ukraine, not because they are afraid of a NATO offensive against Russia using territory of Ukraine, but because they are afraid that NATO will defend Ukraine against Russia’s next aggression. Support for the formula ‘No-NATO’ for Ukraine makes Russian planning of its next aggression against Ukraine more easy. 

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And here I want to use this occasion also to say few words about Russia. About tragedy of Russia and about the future of Russia. 

Russia’s war against Ukraine is a global tragedy. Russia’s war against Ukraine creates an incredible number of tragedies for Ukraine. The war again raises memories about the tragic history of the European continent in the 20th century: can we avoid another tragic pan-European, similar to the First World War or the Second World War? 

But paradoxically, this war, waged by Putin, is also a tragedy for the Russian nation. With this war Russia excluded itself from the global community of normal, non-aggressive countries. The trajectory of Russia’s development is slowly going downward and will continue to follow this direction, if there is no domestic political will for dramatic change back to normality. It is clear, that it will not happen with Putin in power. 

The history of humanity is full of examples how nations, famous history,  or civilizations were not able to change the downward trajectory of their development and simply disappeared from the future of history. 

The historic roots of the tragedy of Russia are very clear: during the Second Wordld War, Russians, together with Ukrainians, Belorussians, Americans, Brits and many other nations, all together, managed to defeat the fascism of Nazi Germany, but later Russians without a real fight lost the battle against their own internal, national sort of fascism: a mixture of nostalgic Russian imperialism and autocratic Bolshevism.  

In the 21st century on the European continent, everybody wants to have good relations with their neighbors, including good relations with Russia. The Baltics have the strongest interest, because of their historic experience. But good relations depend only on one condition: is Russia able to become a normal country. You cannot have good relations with an aggressor, especially if you are living in its neighborhood or on the European continent, not separated from aggressive Russia by Atlantic Ocean.  

That is why everybody in democratic Europe needs to make a clear decision what they want: good relations with Putin, knowing that it will just prolong the tragedy of Russia and threats to Europe; or good relations with the normal Russia of the future, which maybe will manage to come back, if the Russian people will be helped to understand the alternative directions of Russia’s future development: downward with global isolation and imperial aggression, supported by autocratic bolshevism of Putin; or the possibility of a normal Russia, without aggression and autocracy, but with reestablished global relations, including with European Union. 

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If we agree, that aggressive Russia was, is and will stay as the biggest threat to European security (which will not disappear even if the peace will be established), there is a need for democratic West to have a clear strategy what to do with such a permanent threat. It is not enough just to strengthen Ukraine’s or EU defence capabilities against aggressive Russia. It is of paramount importance for the EU to have a long term strategy how to assist Russia to become a non aggressive normal neighbor of the European Union. That is how permanent threats to Europe will disappear.  

Our support for the success of Ukraine is the single most important strategic tool in such a strategy towards Russia, since Ukraine’s success can inspire Russian people to follow this example. Putin is afraid of such an inspiration and of the possible dreams of Russian people to have a normal life. Putin is himself the tragedy for the future of Russia and his regime is not so permanent as it looks at the moment. The European Union needs to have a strategy how to help the Russian people to have a different, not so tragic future for themselves. That would be also the biggest benefit for the security of the whole Europe.  

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Today, when we have such a historical gathering we need to talk not only about urgency and the strategic defence needs of today. But also about longer term future of Europe. 

In my view, we face two different time frames with different security challenges:  

• The first challenge, most urgent: Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and the possibility of Russian aggression against EU or NATO Member States before 2030.  

• The second challenge is for the longer term – the next decade. China’s rising military power, and as a result, the US shifting its attention more and more to the Indo-Pacific, at the same time diminishing their presence on the European continent.  

As the White Paper on the future of European Defence says: “…a new international order will be formed in the second half of this decade and beyond”. And that is why we need to act based on our long-term strategy, because “history will not forgive us for inaction”. 

“Defending Europe is a European task” – those are the words of my Mission Letter. 

Today, quite often myself and various Europeans, we repeat the self-evident truth that 450 million Europeans should not ask 340 million Americans to permanently defend us against 140 million Russians, who are not able to defeat 38 millions Ukrainians.  

Economically we are strong and powerful enough to take our defence into our own hands. But it will take time.  

Looking at the longer term future it will not be enough to spend more on defence and to produce more defence weapons. In order to defend ourselves it is essential, that we “develop a European security architecture”, as stated in my Mission Letter. Our strategic goal is to unite all efforts to strengthen European defence into “a true European Defence Union”. 

Ukraine today is playing a crucial role in the urgent defence of Europe and it will play most important role in the longer term development of  European defence readiness, in development of new European security architecture, in the process of building “a true European Defence Union”.  

That is why we need to understand the strategic significance of our long term strategy on Ukraine. 

Our Ukraine Strategy is based on three pillars of integration:  

1) Security integration:  

The formula for security in Europe is very simple: Europe – whole, free and at peace. Freedom needs to be defended and expanded more and more towards the Eastern part of Europe. The formula for peace – “Peace through strength” can be implemented only with us giving additional substantial strength to Ukraine. That can be achieved with increased defence assistance to Ukraine; as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen repeatedly says: the best security guarantee for Ukraine is the “porcupine strategy” – strengthening Ukrainian defence and military capabilities to the level of real deterrence. As the Commission President says: our best investment into the security of Europe is our investment into security of Ukraine. 

The new EU Programme “Rearm Europe” and “SAFE” loans are creating possibilities for EU Member States to increase military support to Ukraine through joint procurement of weapons together with Ukraine, from Ukraine and for Ukraine. We are establishing the joint EU-Ukraine task force for exploitation of  “SAFE” loans and this new arrangement will also be very helpful. 

2) Defence integration:  

The Integration of European and Ukrainian defence industries is becoming a very important part of our agenda. New opportunities are opening with the forthcoming EDIP programme. Next Monday, the important EU-Ukraine Defence Industry Forum will be held in Brussels. The Ukrainian Defence industry is showing unbelievable successes. We can support the Ukrainian defence industry with our financial and industrial strength, Ukraine’s defence industry can support the EU defence industry with Ukrainian know-how, and remarkable skills of innovation and modernization. Warfare doctrinal integration can also help us to understand the significance of the “Drone Army” in order for us to be able to repeat that success on our side. New initiatives for our integration in this field are coming.  

3) European integration: 

It’s symbolic: today we remember the 8th of May – the end of war.  

Tomorrow we remember the 9th May – the beginning of European unity.  

European integration, proposed by Shuman Declaration, on 9th of May, 1950, had a very clear goal: to protect peace and avoid wars on the European continent through unification of Europe.  

As the Commission President said yesterday: Ukrainian membership of our Union “can be the strongest security guarantee”. That is why Ukrainian membership in EU is needed not only for Ukraine, but also for the whole EU. That is why the Commission President also said “we are working hard with Ukraine to open all clusters in 2025”.   

And the best way to finish is again to quote Commission President: “Ukraine joining our Union is the greatest guarantee of a just and lasting peace. In our history, peace and European integration have always gone hand in hand. So let us bring Ukraine inside our Union. Let us walk the path of peace together”. 

This is the most important responsibility of our generation! 

Slava Ukraini!